银价会超过金价？一篇文章竟让美国铸币厂银币断了货[泉友社区]

银价会超过金价？一篇文章竟让美国铸币厂银币断了货
THOUGHTS FROM IZZY
By Israel Friedman
(Israel Friedman is a friend and mentor to Theodore Butler. He has followed silver for many decades. He has written articles for us in the past. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse these views.)
The U.S. mint sold 2,170,000 silver eagles and only 26,000 gold eagles in the month of January. By my calculation 83 times more silver eagles were sold then gold eagles. This is an enormous difference that shows you how much more interest there is in silver. Investors are starting to understand that silver is a better investment then gold. I congratulate Mr. Butler that by his writing about silver, more and more people are buying physical silver.
In my opinion, the beauty of silver is that any amount of silver you buy will reward you tremendously. Maybe only 0.5% of the world population has heard about silver and they are mostly American investors who bought in the last 15 years around 400 million ounces of silver.
Today, many silver investors are asking why silver doesn't achieve all time highs like gold. Mr. Butler answers this question every week by emphasizing the control of prices on the COMEX by 4 or less traders that hold more than 50% of the net short position. When you hold a position of more than 50%, you control the market. This may be changing now. The short position is the main reason why the price of silver is behind the gold price, but this creates the opportunity to buy silver.
Different people have different opinions or expectations for future prices. I personally believe that only silver can be characterized as real precious metal and gold is a second violin. I made this decision by understanding the rarity of the metal and its world stocks. Let's look at gold first: its world stocks increase almost 100 million ounces annually. Contrast this to silver, which is in a yearly deficit and is decreasing yearly. World gold stocks are around 5 billion ounces and silver around 1 to 2 billion ounces. I say with conviction that silver is more rare than gold and, in my eyes, is the only precious metal. I think investors are beginning to understand that a shortage can develop easily in silver, but not so in gold, because it is not used that much industrially. It is a lot easier for people to pay $15 or $20 for an ounce than $900 or $1,000, especially when the cheap one has the most value.
If 90% of the world population knew this, the prices of silver and gold would be different. In the short term, with gold prices over $900, silver would be in the hundreds. Mr. Butler doesn't like my numbers. He says that they are too extreme and people are going to lose confidence in my writing, but I hope he will not censor me, because this is my opinion. Silver in the hundreds of dollars will come only with a shortage of silver. The 4 or less shorts will give up. With a shortage, world investors will recognize the rarity of silver.
Gold and silver seem to trade together, tick by tick. It is easy for many people to think they are the same commodity. Not true. Gold and silver are very different, even if they behave now as one. I am certain that will change, and perhaps very soon. You don抰 have to look very far to see just how different silver is from gold.
Some of you want to hear how I see the future in silver prices and what I think about the world in my crystal ball.
(1) Life expectancy will rise tremendously and most of you will live over 100 in years to come.
(2) It will be very important to save and prepare for a long life.
(3) Investment in education----silver----farmland, in my opinion, will do the best.
(4) At some point, in 15 to 20 years, silver prices will be 5 times higher then gold prices. If my calculation is correct, a dollar invested in silver will do many times better than gold. In real estate value, I think 1,000 ounces of silver will buy a 3-bedroom apartment in Manhattan in Trump Towers.
I am a different thinker, and some gold investors don't like my opinion, but that is their problem.
Those who believe in silver value should buy eagles and force the mint to work overtime.

译文如下：
（以色列弗雷德曼先生是巴特勒的朋友和导师，费德曼先生对银的关注已有十几年了，过去他已给我们写过许多文章，此篇仅代表他对稀有物品投资的个人观点。）
美国造币厂在一月的一个月时间里共销售了217万只银鹰和2.6万只金鹰，银鹰的销售量是金鹰的83倍。这巨大的差异显示出人们对银有多大的兴趣，投资者开始了解银的投资比黄金的投资更好。我祝贺巴特勒先生他写了关于白银的文章，让越来越多的人了解和购买白银。
在我看来，银有良好的投资前景，无论您购买多少银，它所带来的回报都是极其可观的。也许目前只有世界人口的0.5%了解白银，而这些大部分是美国投资者，他们在过去的15年中购买了400万盎司的白银。
当今许多银的投资者会问，为什么银过去一直都没有达到和金一样高的价格，巴特勒先生每周都要回答这些问题，他强调说控制价格在COMEX（译者注：纽约商品期货交易所）里4个或更少的贸易商持有超过50%的净差额（short position），当你持有高于50%的净差额时，你就可以控制市场。现在这种情况可以改变了，这个净差额就是为什么银的价格在金之后的主要原因，但是这创造了一个购买白银的机会。
不同的人对银将来的价格有不同的期望值，我个人相信只有银才具有真正珍贵金属的特点，而金只能排在第二。这是在了解这种稀有金属和其世界藏量的基础上作出此判断的，让我们先来看一下黄金：黄金的储量大约每年增加1亿盎司，相比银每年却呈现出赤字抑或减少，世界黄金储量大约是50亿盎司而银大约是10到20亿盎司，由此我定论白银比黄金罕见，我很确信它是唯一珍贵的金属，我相信投资者正在逐渐明白，白银的短缺会让它有更大的发展空间。它不像黄金，因为黄金没有广泛应用于工业。何况，让人们花15-20美元去购买一盎司的白银比花900-1000美元购买一盎司的黄金要容易得多，特别地，便宜的东西还具有更高的价值。
假如世界人口的90%的人都了解这样的状况的话，白银和黄金的价格将会有很大不同，在短期内，随着黄金的价格超过900美元，白银也会达到数百美元，巴特勒先生不喜欢我的数字，他说我写的太极端，人们将失去信心，但我希望他不要恶意地评论我的观点，因为这是我的观点--银只有在短缺的时候才会达到数百美元，使得贸易商们放弃对银的控制。随着银的短缺，世界的投资者将会承认银是罕见稀有的。
金和银的在相互贸易竞争中，许多人很容易认为它们是同一类型的商品。事实上并非如此，在我看来金和银是完全不同的，即使它们现在的表现得相似。我确信这样的情况肯定会改变，说不定就是马上。你不必从宏观的角度来看银和金到底有什么不同。
你们当中的一些人很想听到我对银价的走势和整个世界的行情的判断和预测：
（1）       人的平均寿命将提高得可怕，大部分人将会活到100岁以上。
（2）       对长寿的生活的准备及储蓄将变得非常重要。
（3）       对教育、银以及农田耕地的投资，在我看来，将会获得最大的收益。
（4）       从某些观点来看，在接下来的15到20年间，银的价格将会高出金价5倍。如果我的计算正确，用1美元来投资白银，得到的效果将会是金的好几倍。若换算成实际价值，1000盎司的白银将可以在纽约的中心区，曼哈顿的Trump Towers买一套拥有3个卧室的公寓。
我的见解和别人不一样，也有许多金的投资者不喜欢我观点，但这是他们的问题。
那些相信白银的价值的人就应该去买“银鹰”，并迫使造币厂超负荷地工作。

在我翻译（直译和意译相结合）此文的过程中，得到了单敏勤女士的倾力帮助，致谢。